As we look ahead to how 2025 will end, everybody has an opinion about what the year will bring. We asked some of our past podcast guests to share their thoughts and their insights did not disappoint! I sat down with my colleague, Mark Thomas, EVP of Alliances / Marketing, to discuss these predictions and share a few of our own. From the rise of new players in the automotive industry to advancements in AI, here are some of the key predictions that resonated with us.
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Stephan Zech: Managing Uncertainty in the Age of EVs
First up, we have Stephan Zech, a partner at Bain & Company, who predicts that 2025 will be all about managing uncertainty, especially in the realm of electric vehicles (EVs). The rapidly evolving landscape of EV regulations will force automakers to be agile, adapting to new rules and fluctuating sales expectations. According to Stephan, this means a renewed focus on reviewing supply chain strategies, managing costs, and excelling in customer experience.
Mark made a great point during this discussion—one way companies can stay nimble is through better data management. With the complexity of managing EV battery health, leveraging AI and automation for real-time data analysis will become crucial. The companies that can efficiently track battery life and health, even years ahead of time, will have a competitive advantage. That’s where data-driven insights really come into play. AI and automation can make this process faster, more accurate, and much more efficient.
Here are all of Stefan’s predictions:
- For many automakers, 2025 will be all about managing uncertainty in a successful way, e.g., catering to potential changes in EV regulation and volatility in EV sales ramp-up.
- A thorough review of manufacturing and supply chain strategies will be required to ensure flexibility to customer demand and adapt to changing regulatory frameworks and tariff structures.
- Cost management across the full value chain will be important to manage potential economic headwinds and free up capital for investment.
- Critical to ensure “excellence in the fundamentals” from product performance, sales & marketing as well as end-to-end customer experience.
Partha Goswami: Chinese OEMs Taking the Lead in Global Automotive Leadership
Next, Partha Goswami, an automotive futurist and founder of PG Mobility Insights, highlighted a major shift we can expect from Chinese OEMs. He predicts that 2025 will mark a turning point for Chinese automakers who will continue to expand globally in the electric vehicle sector. By the end of the year, these companies will gain a significant market share and establish themselves as true leaders in the industry. The rapid adoption of electric vehicles in global markets will bring more competitive pricing and options prompting legacy brands like GM and Ford to rethink their strategies.
The challenge for U.S. OEMs is that they won’t have the same protections overseas, so the global expansion of Chinese brands will certainly shake things up. It’s interesting to think about how this expansion of Chinese OEMs will affect global markets, particularly for fleets. If they’re able to prove the reliability and cost-effectiveness of their EVs, it could change the game for fleet operators who are always looking for more competitive pricing.
Consumers likely won’t feel it right away, especially with tariffs and trade regulations, but for fleet owners, this could be a huge win. If brands like BYD can offer more affordable, reliable EV options, it might push US OEMs to rethink their pricing and technology strategies.
Listen to all seven of Partha’s points in his video:
Sherry Calkins: Cost Reduction and AI Adoption
Sherry Calkins, Senior VP of Global Strategic Accounts at Geotab, spoke about one theme that we’re seeing across many industries: managing costs. Even with the introduction of EVs, fleet management companies will continue to face rising maintenance costs and parts expenses. Sherry predicts that AI adoption will be crucial for cost optimization. With AI-powered sensors and cameras, fleets can enhance safety and lower long-term costs by improving vehicle longevity. Technology like this can provide valuable insights into everything from fuel consumption to maintenance schedules.
As Sherry noted the overall reliability of vehicles will improve. With longer lifespans and better safety features these upfront investments will pay off in the long run. The use of AI to monitor and automate fleet management processes could drastically reduce the time spent on manual tasks and increase operational efficiency.
It’s a great reminder that sometimes investing more upfront pays off in the long run. AI will both reduce costs and improve the overall lifespan and efficiency of the fleet. The integration of AI to monitor vehicle health and driver behavior will make a big difference, especially for fleets that operate on tight margins.
Sherry’s complete assessment of where fleets will focus their efforts in 2025 include:
- Cost Reductions: Reducing costs remains a top priority in 2025 as it was in 2024. We’re seeing rising costs in maintenance and parts, while new vehicle prices seem to have plateaued.
- Maintenance Costs: Controlling maintenance expenses is crucial. Focusing on applying AI towards vehicle maintenance offers improved control and oversight to reduce costs and improve vehicle lifespan.
- AI Adoption: There’s a lot of interest in AI, but fleets are approaching it somewhat cautiously. They want readily accessible information and solutions, and AI is evolving to offer that. Data privacy and the reliability, trust and transparency of AI are concerns. Most companies will be using some form of AI in 2025.
Jay Wertzberger: Tesla’s Cyber Cab and the Future of Robo-Taxis
One of the bolder predictions came from Jay Wertzberger, founder of the ATI Auto Business Show. Jay believes that Tesla’s Cyber Cab, despite not being on the road yet, will be a major success, largely due to relaxed regulations and Elon Musk’s influence on the current administration. Let’s hear it from Jay:
While we’re not quite there yet, the idea of robo-taxis becoming mainstream seems inevitable to many, including Mark and me. Jay’s prediction isn’t without merit, as autonomous vehicle technology continues to advance.
Mark and I discussed the increasing reliance on AI to make these robo-taxis safer and more efficient. We also delved into the idea of “self-driving cars as a service,” comparing it to the smartphone market, where platforms like Apple and Android rule the roost. If robo-taxis become the norm, companies including Waymo and Tesla could become the leaders in self-driving infrastructure. The question remains if the world needs multiple different autonomous driving platforms or just multiple different companies offering autonomous ride-hailing services each with their own consumer value proposition?
Trent Gifford: The EV Crossroads and Fleets’ Adaptation
Trent Gifford, founder of the Independent Car Rental Association (ICRA) believes that 2025 will be pivotal for EV adoption, especially as new technology and evolving regulations continue to affect the market. The surge in interest for electric vehicles is undeniable, but Trent sees a transition period, especially in the rental and fleet sector.
For fleets there’s a need to ensure that EVs fit the specific demands of their routes. EVs used for fleet purposes require the right infrastructure to function efficiently. Charging infrastructure still is unknown for many fleet owners, who are looking to understand how much power is needed to support their operations. Knowing the best time and place to charge is a pre-requisite to ensuring proper vehicle uptime. Having the right tools in place to manage vehicle charging times will ultimately reduce downtime and operational costs. Fleets that embrace this approach will find EVs to be a cost-effective and sustainable solution.
Also, shout out to the ICRA for launching the largest and most advanced Career Center for the independent car rental industry. Whether you’re an employer or a job seeker, visit https://worldicra.careerwebsite.com to learn more.
Jeffrey DeCoux: Intelligent Infrastructure Powered by AI
A long-term prediction from Jeffrey DeCoux, chairman at the Autonomy Institute, caught our attention: AI-powered intelligent infrastructure will start being deployed across the nation “on a sidewalk near you.” We’re excited about the idea of AI-powered infrastructure. It feels like something out of a sci-fi movie, but as Jeffrey pointed out, the technology is already here, and we’re on the brink of seeing it become a reality. The rapid development of IoT devices makes this more possible than ever. Cities could soon use AI to monitor everything from traffic patterns to pedestrian flow, and this technology could provide more actionable data for better urban planning and autonomous vehicle operation.
The integration of this infrastructure with autonomous vehicles could also improve safety, efficiency, and traffic management, creating smarter, more seamless cities. As Jeffrey mentioned, while this may take a decade to fully materialize, we could see the early stages of this technology starting in 2025. The idea that we could have streets that ‘talk’ to vehicles and pedestrians to optimize traffic patterns is incredible. It’s a glimpse into what smart cities could look like, and it all starts with these small, AI-driven innovations.
Jeffrey had a lot more to say, check it out:
- Intelligent Infrastructure powered by AI will be deployed nationwide on a sidewalk near you over the next decade.
- Broadband and access to AI services will be ubiquitous in cities. AI will be enabled by Intelligent Infrastructure, keeping data sovereign to the communities they serve and ensuring privacy, trust, and security.
- Our community and city infrastructure will be maintained by autonomous AI robotics. AI will enable autonomous robotics to be deployed at scale to perform maintenance and sustainment tasks on the world’s infrastructure. “If maintenance were fixed . . . it would change the world more significantly than the internet or steam engine.”
- We will be leveraging atomic energy for the majority of baseload energy. The USA is executing an All-of-the-Above Energy strategy. Including accelerating the United States back on track to the Atomic Age. Producing MORE power for human thriving and executing a Water
Ed Garsten: The Role of Hybrids in the EV Transition
Veteran automotive journalist and writer for Forbes – Ed Garsten predicts that the rollback of emissions regulations could affect the trajectory of EV adoption. While hybrid vehicles may not be as glamorous as full EVs, they represent a crucial step in the transition to greener transportation. For consumers who are hesitant about long charging times on road trips, hybrids can offer a good middle ground for the transition period.
Ed’s prediction resonates with the need for a balanced and strategic approach to electrification. Hybrids will have a place for the foreseeable future for fleets especially, as they provide a flexible option that allows you to reduce emissions without the infrastructure and range concerns that some full EVs still face.
Ed had a few additional thoughts as well, listen here:
Jason Kraus: Pivoting Through Change
Finally, Jason Kraus, VP of Operations at Mike Albert, put forth the idea that “pivot” will be the word of 2025. Emissions regulations, evolving fleet needs, and the push to reduce costs will require fleet operators to continuously adapt. One of Jason’s key points is the importance of digitization—integrating systems and using data to make smarter decisions.
With more fleet managers adopting AI and automation, managing and tracking vehicle utilization will become easier and more accurate. The future of fleet management is all about data-driven decisions, and Jason predicts that this will be a crucial focus for businesses in 2025. This is the year when data and AI are really going to be transformative, and the fleet operators who embrace digital solutions will be the ones that thrive in this new environment.
Jason had some additional thoughts on trends for 2025, as well as some advice for fleet managers:
- Pivot is the word of the year for 2025.
- How will emissions regulations be scaled back and tariffs be enacted by the incoming American administration?
- This has OEMs evaluating their vehicle portfolios from a powertrain perspective of ICE vs hybrid, plug-in hybrid or battery electric models.
- (ESG) policies of some companies have been diminished.
- Fleet managers trying to identify the lowest TCO for their fleet operations, while attempting to align with models that will continue to be offered in the coming years.
- So what is a fleet manager to do?
- Focus on the data available to lead you to your key strategies; In particular the telematics data and fueling data.
- Pivot the primary goal to reducing the TCO for vehicles in your operations, with the CO2 emissions reduction as an ancillary (and still admirable) benefit.
- This could include:
- Converting ICE models to hybrid models in segments such as cars or compact & mid-size sport utilities over the next few years based on the return on investment for fuel savings versus the incremental price of the vehicle.
- Identifying specific drivers for which a plug-in hybrid or electric vehicle make sense. This could include route specific drivers with vehicles that are garaged at a company location for depot charging to have a full charge by morning. The same thought could apply to drivers that have the ability to add an L2 charger at their home for an EV or just plugging into a standard wall outlet (aka L1) for a plug-in hybrid. Since plug-in hybrids have a smaller battery, plugging into a wall outlet overnight is often enough dwell time to have a fully charged battery ready to deliver 25 – 50+ miles of EV power by the next morning to tackle all of, or at least part of, the driver’s route or commute.
Mark Thomas: Predictions for AI and Data-Driven Decisions
As for Mark, he had some predictions of his own. He believes that AI will continue to transform the industry, especially when it comes to fleet management. Mark sees AI stepping in to offer more tailored, vehicle-specific business insights. This technology will help fleet managers make smarter decisions, whether it’s adjusting the vehicle portfolio or determining the best time to retire or remarket a vehicle.
Mark also emphasized the importance of connecting all of the systems within fleet operations. By digitizing and automating these systems, fleet companies will be able to pivot and adjust to new demands with ease. The future of fleet management is all about leveraging data to make proactive decisions and reduce manual tasks.
Looking Ahead
As we head further into 2025, it’s clear that the landscape of mobility, fleet management, and transportation technology is evolving at a breakneck pace. From the rise of Chinese automakers to the increasing adoption of AI and intelligent infrastructure, we’re on the verge of significant transformations. I look forward to seeing how these predictions pan out and how the industry will adapt to these changes.